黑色星期一
Never far from bearish minds is the 1987 crash,which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average Plunge 508 points on Black Monday.
熊市人士的心中,殷鉴不远的是1987年的大崩盘:道琼斯工业指数在黑色星期一惨跌508点。
That 508-point plunge on Black Monday was worsened by so-called portfolio insurance,
黑色星期一508点的狂跌,被所谓“证券保险”火上加油。
which is computerized programs designed to bail investors out of stocks in a downturn by selling stock futures.
这种电脑程序设计的目的,就是要在股票下跌时大卖股票期货,以助投资人杀出股市。
blue chip
绩优股
And while other blue-chip firms such as Sears,IBM and General Motors,floundered in the 1980s,
1980年代,当其他绩优股如西尔斯百货、IBM和通用汽车在挣扎时,
most GE units surged ahead and consistently hit Welch’s target of being No.1or No.2 in every market.
奇异集团大多数的机构却都能大幅上涨,并且如Welch所愿,在各该领域中都能维持第一或第二的成绩。
Like their American counterparts,Japanese executives cheerfully overpaid for their late-80s acquisitions.
日本企业主管也和他们的美国同侪一样,在1980年代末期高高兴兴地花冤枉钱进行一堆购并案。
But the Japanese made another fundamental miscalculation,
但日本人犯了另一个基本的错误。
says Gray Saxonhouse,an economics professor at the University of Michigan:
密歇根大学经济学教授Gray Saxonhouse指出:
"They had a faith in American landmarks a faith in American blue-chip names."
“他们对美国的陆标太有信心,对美国的名牌企业也同样太有信心。”
bull market
牛市、多头市场
Some analysts,dwelling on the fundamentals rather than superstition,
一些坚守基本观念而不盲从的分析家认为,
think the epic bull market that began in 1982 has finally entered a long season of bearishness
自1982年来持久不衰的牛市,终于进入了长期的熊市,
because of the likelihood of very show economic growth in the 1990s.
因为1990年代的经济增长似乎会非常缓慢。
Share prices in the relentlessly upbeat stock market now stand at skyhigh levels by historical standards,
在这毫不犹豫向前冲的股市中,现在的股价指数站在历史新高点,
and dividend yields have fallen to near record lows-
但股利却几乎掉到创纪录的低档——
classic signals that the bull market that began 2 1/2 years ago has got dangerously long in the tooth.
这是很典型的警讯:两年半前开始的牛市已经持续太久到摇摇欲坠的地步了。
corporate bond
公司债券
The average aggressive-growth fund has risen 29% in the past 12 months.Corporate-bond funds gained 13% overall.
高增长基金在过去12个月平均涨幅为29%,而公司债券基金涨幅为13%。
As a graduate business student at Pennsylvania’s Wharton School,Milken made junk bonds a focus of his scholarship.
垃圾债券大王米尔肯还在宾州大学华顿商学院念研究生时,他就以研究垃圾债券得到奖学金。
Despite their reputation for high risk,he found that the securities showed a history of few defaults.
他发现虽然垃圾债券风险有名的高,但是在过去却很少出现问题。
Milken believed the securities’ relatively high yields,typically 3% to 5% more than any investment-grade corporate bond,were more than enough compensation for that slightly increased risk.
Milken相信这种证券在利润上比任何的投资级公司债券都要高3%至5%的情形下,远可以弥补稍微偏高的风险所可能带来的损失。
default
违约
Greenspan’s strong hint last week that the Federal Reserve will continue to push up interest rates
上周Greenspan强烈暗示联邦储备银行将持续调高利率,
heightened worries that more governments with over-leveraged portfolios heavily based on interest rate bets could be forced to default.
如此一来,更多的政府就更要担心他们主要靠赌利率才能维持的一个以债养债的局面即将崩溃,使他们被迫违约。