Earthquake Casts Uncertainty Over a Host of Chinese Stocks
China’s stock markets could be affected for months by Monday’s deadly earthquake in the southwestern province of Sichuan.
Chinese stocks ranging from insurers to cement makers will be sensitive to reports of the destruction from the 7.9-magnitude earthquake that continue to trickle in from remote areas. Stocks in companies with major operations in southwestern China and property insurers could sink further, while construction-related stocks are expected to rise on the government’s plans to rebuild.
On Tuesday, China’s domestic exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen suspended shares of 66 listed companies based in Sichuan province and the neighboring municipality of Chongqing pending details on their exposure.
"It will be some time before the full extent of the damage can be assessed," said Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China equities at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. "However, early reports suggest that the impact on the macroeconomy may end up being significant."
She pointed to property developers, toll-road operators and manufacturers with substantial operations in the region as the stocks likely to suffer most. Many of those stocks were suspended from trading Tuesday.
China’s State Administration of Work Safety told companies to shut oil wells and mines in affected areas until conditions improve and workers can safely return to their jobs, according to a statement posted on its Web site.
PetroChina, the country’s biggest oil producer by output, has substantial operations in Sichuan, including a natural-gas field and an oil-products pipeline. Its Shanghai-listed shares declined 2.6% Tuesday to close at 17.39 yuan ($2.49) apiece. A senior PetroChina official said Monday that in the initial hours after the quake, the company hadn’t received reports of any major damage to its production facilities there.
The earthquake is the country’s most intense since a 1976 one of similar magnitude struck Tangshan, a city in eastern China, killing about 240,000. The death toll from Monday’s disaster rose above 12,000 Tuesday.
For Chinese insurers, the earthquake will be the second major blow this year. In January and February, snowstorms paralyzed the country’s infrastructure and left much of its migrant worker population stranded during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.
Among the three mainland-listed life insurance companies, China Life Insurance has the biggest exposure to the disaster area, with a 38.6% share of the life insurance market in Sichuan, while China Pacific Insurance (Group) holds 11% and Ping An Insurance (Group) of China has 10.7%, according to a research note by Ping An Securities, a unit of Ping An Insurance.
"As an insurer, we constantly assess the effect of natural disasters on our earnings. While there’ll be some effect on our earnings this year, I believe the impact will likely be limited" Ping An Insurance’s chairman, Ma Mingzhe, said Tuesday. Mr. Ma said it is too early to estimate claims related to the earthquake.
China Life’s Shanghai-listed shares dropped 4.8% to 31.62 yuan Tuesday, while those of China Pacific Insurance fell 7.2% to 24.69 yuan. The Shanghai Composite index declined 1.8%. Shares of Ping An were suspended from trading because of a shareholder meeting.
"Though I think China Life and Ping An are worthy of long-term investment, their stocks will likely continue to lose attraction, not only because of the disaster but also due to the uncertainty in the stock market," said Wu Yonggang, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities.
Merrill Lynch economists argue that the earthquake should have less of an effect on the country’s export-oriented industries, because the chief production sites for those are along the eastern coast.
"We also see little impact on China’s currency, because the earthquake took place in regions almost negligible for China’s external trade," Merrill Lynch economists Ting Lu and T.J. Bond wrote in the report.
In the quake’s aftermath, banks might see looser credit policies. The government, which has clamped down on lending growth to attack inflation, eased up after the snowstorms, and relaxed controls on loans to affected areas.
"This disaster is likely to bring a partial relaxation in efforts to tighten credit, with local banks encouraged to offer loans in the worst-affected areas," says Ms. Ulrich of J.P. Morgan Chase. "We expect reconstruction activity to proceed swiftly due to the national focus on responding to the crisis, and this will support growth in fixed-asset investments."
Shares in Anhui Conch Cement, one of the country’s largest cement producers, rose 5.5% in Shanghai trading to close at 64.19 yuan Tuesday. Tangshan Jidong Cement rose by the daily limit of 10% in Shenzhen to close at 18.81 yuan.
5月12日中国西南部四川省发生严重地震。此次地震对中国股市的影响或许会持续数月。
从保险公司到水泥制造商等多个类股将对此次7.9级地震造成哪些损害的报道尤为敏感。那些主要业务在中国西南部的公司的股票，以及财产险保险公司的股票或将进一步走低，而受政府重建计划的利好消息推动，受此次灾害冲击的建筑类股将会走高。
5月13日中国沪深股市66家四川省和重庆直辖市的上市公司股票临时停牌，等待公布进一步损失情况。
摩根大通中国证券市场部总监李晶认为：“对此次灾害损失的全面评估得等上一段时间，但初步报道表明地震对中国宏观经济的影响可能会很大。”
她指出对房产商，收费公路运营商和业务主要在受灾地区的制造商来说，它们股票遭受的损失将可能是最严重的。许多这类公司的股票周二都被停盘。
国家安全生产监督管理总局在其官方网站上发布声明，要求各大公司关闭它们在灾区的油矿和油井，直到情况有所好转，工人可安全返岗后再恢复生产。
中国石油产量最大的企业中国石油天然气股份有限公司在四川有大量业务，包括一个天然气田和一条石油管道。公司在上海上市的股票昨日下跌2.6%，收于17.39元。中石油一高管周一表示在地震发生后最初几小时，公司还未收到任何报告表明其生产设施遭到严重毁坏。
周一地震是中国自1976年唐山大地震以来最严重的一次。唐山大地震中24万余人丧生，而此次四川大地震死亡人数已上升至1万2千多。
对中国保险公司来说，此次地震是今年以来遭受的第二次重击。一月和二月中国南方雪灾使中国基础设施陷入瘫痪，许多外来务工人员在春节期间不得不滞留他乡。
根据平安保险旗下平安证券的研究数据，三家在内地上市的保险公司中，中国人寿保险在灾区的业务最多，它占有四川38.6%的人寿保险市场份额，而中国太平洋保险和平安在四川的市占率分别为11%和10.7%。
平安集团董事长马明哲周二表示：“作为保险公司，我们会不断评估自然灾害给我们收益带来的影响。今年公司利润会受地震影响，但我相信这种影响可能有限。”他表示现在估算地震相关赔偿金额还为时过早。
周二中国人寿保险在沪上市的A股下跌4.8%，收报31.62元。太平洋保险跌幅为7.2%，收报24.69元。上证综合指数则下滑1.8%。平安因召开股东大会而停牌。
国泰君安证券分析师吴勇刚表示：“尽管我认为中国人寿和平安是值得长期投资的，但它们的股票可能会继续失去吸引力，这不仅是因为受地震冲击，也因为受股市不确定性的影响。”
美林经济学家则认为此次地震对中国那些出口为主的行业影响不大，因为这些行业大多分布在东部沿海地区。
美林经济学家Ting Lu和T.J. Bond在这份报告中指出：“地震对中国贷币即人民币汇率影响也不大，由于受灾地区对中国外贸领域影响几乎可忽略不计。”
中国银行业在地震过后可能会放松借贷政策。政府已通过限制贷款增长来抑制通胀，但南方雪灾过后这种政策有所松动，放宽了对灾区贷款的限制。
摩根大通的李晶称：“这次天灾可能促使一定程度的信贷放松，政府或将鼓励当地银行向受灾最严重的地区放贷。由于全国重心转移到应对这场危机上，重建工作将快速推进，这些都能促进固定资产投资的增长。”
国内最大的水泥生产商安徽海螺水泥的股价周二上涨了5.5%，以64.19元收盘。唐山冀东水泥涨停(涨幅超10%上限)，收于18.81元。
